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Lord_Sauron
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on: March 10, 2020 07:44
As an Australian I can tell you that all the fires (as I am aware) are now have been extinguished which is of course is a great thing
The hard thing now is trying to rebuild the affected communities which will take sometime
ItarildeSirfalas
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on: March 11, 2020 10:23
Oh that’s brilliant news! It was just heart-breaking to see the damage done. I’m glad Australia is on the mend.
It’ll be a tough time and a lot of work; I know a lot of us Brits know someone in Oz or have family there, so it hit home for a lot of people.
I have aunts and uncles dotted around Oz, and I think they’ve gotten involved in some reparation efforts.
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"Yet such is oft the course of deeds that move the wheels of the world: small hands do them because they must, while the eyes of the great are elsewhere." ~ Elrond ♥
Gandolorin
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on: March 13, 2020 07:58
And now everyone, at least in Europe, is going bananas about SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19. There must be something to these Coronaviruses, which include the 2002/03 SARS and the 2012 MERS outbreaks, that makes them a cause of far more concern that the - apparently - "run-of-the-mill" influenza ones.

Current statistics from the Robert Koch Institute, our equivalent of the WHO:

COVID-19 up to 13 March 2020: 3,062 confirmed infections, 5 (7?) confirmed deaths
Influenza up to 06 March 2020: 145,258 confirmed infections, 247 confirmed deaths
Influenza 2018/2019: 181,105 confirmed infections, 852 confirmed deaths

And the “normal” Influenza is at least as, if not more than, infectious as COVID-19.
(And they’re both chickenshit compared to the infectiveness Godzilla Measles …)

I have not found any explanation on either the RKI or the WHO homepage about this discrepancy.
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ItarildeSirfalas
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on: March 14, 2020 03:46
I do think it has been blown up by the media, causing many to panic. I don't know which numbers to trust myself, and I'm not going to claim myself an expert, because I most definitely am not. I've seen there have been over 154,000 confirmed cases worldwide, and 5,798 deaths, but when I've looked further it changes. These numbers were 'up-to-date' as of today (14th March '20), so although the numbers don't compare those of influenza, it's not insignificant.

But as you've said yourself, Gando, there are other just as life-threatening infections, that just go completely under the public's radar. It baffles me.


[Edited on 03/14/2020 by ItarildeSirfalas]
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"Yet such is oft the course of deeds that move the wheels of the world: small hands do them because they must, while the eyes of the great are elsewhere." ~ Elrond ♥
Gandolorin
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on: March 14, 2020 06:18
If one assumes humans are stupid ...
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tarcolan
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on: March 17, 2020 03:43
The SARS-CoV-2 strain is more contagious and has a higher fatality rate than flu. It can survive on surfaces for hours or even days, thus the hand washing. The elderly and those with compromised immune systems or respiratory problems are most at risk, for others it's just annoying. Don't take anti-inflammatory (Ibuprofen) and if you get hot don't try and cool off. It's the body's way of destroying the virus.

I hope some good will come of all this, mainly that we don't need to be so busy, moving around a lot. It may also make people understand that universal health care is not only a human right but plain common sense.
ItarildeSirfalas
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on: March 17, 2020 11:28
tarcolan said:The SARS-CoV-2 strain is more contagious and has a higher fatality rate than flu. It can survive on surfaces for hours or even days, thus the hand washing. The elderly and those with compromised immune systems or respiratory problems are most at risk, for others it's just annoying. Don't take anti-inflammatory (Ibuprofen) and if you get hot don't try and cool off. It's the body's way of destroying the virus.

I hope some good will come of all this, mainly that we don't need to be so busy, moving around a lot. It may also make people understand that universal health care is not only a human right but plain common sense.


I agree so much with that last sentiment, Tarc! Being a Brit AND a healthcare worker, I find it awful there are people unable to access proper healthcare at a time like this. However, also being one of the people affected by an underlying condition at risk, I wish people would have more consideration for those with unseen illnesses, too. Not just now, but in general!
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"Yet such is oft the course of deeds that move the wheels of the world: small hands do them because they must, while the eyes of the great are elsewhere." ~ Elrond ♥
Gandolorin
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on: March 21, 2020 12:16
tarcolan said:The SARS-CoV-2 strain is more contagious and has a higher fatality rate than flu. ...

From what I've read, SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza (with at least 4 significant sub-forms) are comparable in contagiousness. The fatality rate does seem to be higher. As per the end of last week in Germany, confirmed infections with Influenza were just over 165 thousand (since the beginning of the “season” in calendar week 40/2019, or the beginning of October 2019), with 265 deaths, meaning 0.16%. Johns Hopkins University has current infections with COVID-19 in Germany at 20,705, with 72 deaths, yielding 0.35%. (Italy’s numbers are horrific, with 47 thousand infections and 4 thousand deaths, 8.5%).

The really big difference is that for Influenza, there is usually a vaccine available (in Germany) before the “season” starts. I have some difficulty reading the statistics on the homepage of our equivalent of the US’s Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), but around 50% of the population seems to have gotten an inoculation. So, the Influenza is “bouncing off” perhaps every second potential victim here - SARS-CoV-2 can hit everybody. And Influenza has “had time” since the beginning of October 2019 to develop, so for five-and-a-half months by now. SARS-CoV-2 has been “at it” in earnest for just three weeks! (There had been a “low hum” since early February).

Now Germany still has a fairly robust health care system (though as almost everywhere at least in “the west”, it has been weakened by “privatization” lunatics). Which is why I’m puzzled about the fact that per-capita richer Switzerland, at a bit over 10% of Germany’s population – about 8.6 to 83 million – has almost 30% as many infections.

Thinking of regions where health-care is, compared to “the west”, practically nonexistent – foremost Africa, but also swaths of Latin America and Asia - this could lead to infections and fatalities – I don’t really want to think about it. One aspect of these regions might dampen such horror scenarios, the severely more limited mobility of the populations there. But if I think of the (“D”-“R” of the) Congo, which had an Ebola epidemic killing several thousands (in the news; a measles epidemic infecting massively more people due to scanty inoculation, and killing perhaps twice as many people in absolute terms, hardly blipped in the news) now being hit with SARS-CoV-2 – this could make AIDS in Africa look relatively puny …
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tarcolan
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on: March 21, 2020 07:46
The main problem with the coronavirus is that it has jumped species, and our immune systems are not used to it.
Gandolorin
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on: March 22, 2020 01:50
tarcolan said:The main problem with the coronavirus is that it has jumped species, and our immune systems are not used to it.

Same ol' same ol', since humans began to breed livestock. Our more severe problem in the say decades since WW II has been that we have been invading areas (mainly in Africa and Asia) that we have no business being. Our infinite arrogance will always, absolutely always, be brought crashing down by the true rulers of the planet, the microscopic Godzillas. We do not have a snowball’s chance in Angband against them. Just think of antibiotics becoming useless against multi-resistant microbes way above the virus-size, due to the use of antibiotics by raging “greed-is-good” lunatics in too much of animal breeding / “production” for human consumption – often not basic needs food production but production of “delicacies” solely for consumption by a decadent parasite “elite”. With some of these “elite delicacies” having become almost “staple” for (the Horror for “elites”!!!) for “the masses” and thus subjugated to the method of the “greed-is-good” mass-production lunatics.
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Evil~Shieldmaiden
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on: March 23, 2020 10:30
*messenger clad in hazmat suit enters*

I have a message from ES who is currently practicing self-isolation*. No. Not like Morgoth when he entered Udûn. She says she still sees the odd Orc on two when shopping.

* By the by: which that lovely tool, spell check, "corrected" to self-immolation.
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