Welcome Guest 

Register

Forum Home » Books Discussion » Discuss the Books » The Great Plague
Author Topic:
Merides
Humor Admin
Posts: 578
Send Message
Avatar
Post The Great Plague
on: February 09, 2009 07:50
I have been doing some research into the Great Plague of Third Age 1636, and found that there is very little information on it, at least, that I can find... Here's what I have found out:

***

-The Plague started in the east (Mordor, perhaps?) and swept throughout Gondor, then north to Erebor, affecting Men of Gondor and (possibly?) hobbits.

-The plague kills off the current ruling family- King Telemnar and his children. His nephew, Tarondor, succeeds him as King.

-Osgiliath was partly abandoned due to the amount of death by the plague. At this time, the capitol of Gondor was moved from Osgiliath to Minas Anor.

-The White Tree, then located in Minas Anor, perished at this time. King Tarondor replants it either in TA1636 or 1640. (my sources are conflicting on the date)

***

Here's what I'd like to know-

1) Could the Plague have been a weapon of Sauron?
-It came from the east- Mordor is directly East of Gondor.
-It affected Osgiliath the hardest- Osgiliath was the current capitol of Gondor.
-Could this have been a belated retaliation? Sauron was defeated by Gondor in SA 3434, and driven out of Minas Ithil. (By the way, Sauron recaptured Minas Ithil only 366 years after the plague. It was then renamed Minas Morgul.)

2) Could this have been the time that the Houses of Healing were started? It makes sense to me that such a tragedy would cause a change in the culture of medicine in Gondor. I have no evidence to prove this, it's just a theory.

***

Any help on this would be greatly appreciated. I might even write an essay on it, eventually... (Hint, hint, Cirdaneth!)
cirdaneth
Books Admin & Books Forum Moderator
Posts: 2069
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: February 09, 2009 10:12
This is a good one Merides!

I've just been googling for windborn human diseases as that seems to be the nature of this particular plague.

One possibility is influenza and the great pandemic of 1918 could have brought it to Tolkien's mind.

Or there's diseases spread by various kinds of blackfly ... Swarms of these could constitute the "dark winds" that brought the plague from the East. They cause blindness, but i'm not sure about the mortality.

or there's coxidia spores which can be carried long distances by strong winds from infected farmlands and show up in humans as a type of pneumonia.

Classic "plague" is carried by rat-fleas and shows up in three ways ... in lymph nodes (bubonic) ... in the lungs (pneumonic) or in the blood-stream (septicaemic).

Hope this is some use ... or at least for a start.

If you want to write it up later, Merides, we'd be glad to assess it for the ME section.
RangerStryder
Council Member
Posts: 22
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: February 09, 2009 11:56

1) Could the Plague have been a weapon of Sauron?
-It came from the east- Mordor is directly East of Gondor.
-It affected Osgiliath the hardest- Osgiliath was the current capitol of Gondor.
-Could this have been a belated retaliation? Sauron was defeated by Gondor in SA 3434, and driven out of Minas Ithil. (By the way, Sauron recaptured Minas Ithil only 366 years after the plague. It was then renamed Minas Morgul.)


In Tolkien's Fantasy World of Middle Earth, anything bad like a plague you associate that to evil = Sauron in the 3rd age.

It is said that Sauron started the plague to hurt his enemies and it originated from Rhun, and the Easterlings was the first affected with it.

It is said that its intention was to weaken Mordor's enemies and causing them to relax their watch on MOrdor.

In all, the kingdom of Arthedain is the only one who did not suffer serious casualty. (You remember that the real king of Dunedain has a healing power.)

Because the plague stayed for years in Middle Earth, the King of Gondor move its capital to Minas Anor (MInas Tirith)in 1640, 4 years since the Plague began and thus Osgiliath fall into ruin ( who wants to go back to a cursed city where many people died?).
The White Tree of Gondor was planted in 1640 by Tarondor when he moved his capital there.


2) Could this have been the time that the Houses of Healing were started? It makes sense to me that such a tragedy would cause a change in the culture of medicine in Gondor. I have no evidence to prove this, it's just a theory.


The Houses of Healing is just a Hospital facility in Gondor, and when Tarondor moved its capital to Minas Anor, then its Hospital facility also move.

The Houses of Healing were located in the southeastern part of the sixth level of the City near the gate to the citadel.

Many different herbs with healing properties were kept there in the charge of an herb-master. The Warden of the Houses of Healing was the chief of the healers.
arvanion898
Council Member
Posts: 650
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: February 09, 2009 12:15
Actually, I'm not entirely sure it was Sauron. It could have been just one of those things...

My reasoning:
1. It devastated Rhun and Harad as well, ensuring that they wouldn't be able to attack the weakened Gondor.
2. Although it killed most of the royal family, it most likely would have killed all of them if Sauron had been controlling it.

Of course, that's what I think.
Merides
Humor Admin
Posts: 578
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: February 09, 2009 01:03
Thanks, all of you, for your swift answers!

Cirdaneth- you echoed my thoughts about the sicknesses. I was specifically thinking of the paralells between Tolkien's Great Plague and the Black (bubonic) Plague. You also introduced several other theories, specifically the influenza epidemic, that I had not thought of.

RangerStryder- could you cite your sources for me? I'd love to see specifically where it says that Sauron did cause the plague. Also, do you have the specifics about when the Houses of Healing were started, and then moved? I'd like to see that, too! Thanks!

Arvanion898- Thanks for the opposite view- I hadn't heard about Rhun and Harad being devastated as well. However, had Sauron approached the men of the south as allies at that point? Also, I'm not sure that a sickness could be 'controlled' by a remote force- that would imply that the plague was intelligent, or specifically placed, which contradicts the 'sweeping' effect.

Thanks again! Keep the info coming!
Celebrian
Council Member
Posts: 420
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: February 09, 2009 03:25
Sauron wouldn't hesitate to use what could be considered his "own" people to conduct experiments for the development of a biological weapon. It could be that it got a little out of control but he wouldn't be likely to lose much sleep over that. My biggest problem against this theory is that it did eventually blow over. If Sauron had worked out a means of waging germ warfare, I doubt he'd have stopped until every Man, Elf and Dwarf was dead.
RangerStryder
Council Member
Posts: 22
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: February 09, 2009 03:43
My sources are:

The Atlas of Middle Earth
The Peoples of Middle Earth
The Thains Book website

I chk the chronologies, cross ref., chk index, google some key words, make judgement call, guess...etc is how I come to my reply to your topic.

For the Houses of Healing....its common sense. If the capital of Gondor is in Osgiliath, then all main bldgs. like a hospital is also located but when Tarondor move the capital to Minas Anor (Minas Tirith) then you also assume all the facility will be moved.

If Tarondor move to Minas Anor in 1640 then we can safely assume that all govt. bldgs. also was founded at this time.

Actually, I'm not entirely sure it was Sauron. It could have been just one of those things...

My reasoning:
1. It devastated Rhun and Harad as well, ensuring that they wouldn't be able to attack the weakened Gondor.
2. Although it killed most of the royal family, it most likely would have killed all of them if Sauron had been controlling it.

Of course, that's what I think.


Since when a darklord like Sauron or Morgoth give a damn who die in their quest for domination?

[Edited on 10/2/2009 by cirdaneth]
cirdaneth
Books Admin & Books Forum Moderator
Posts: 2069
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: February 10, 2009 12:13
I think you are right about the Houses of Healing, RangerStryder, as people carrying virulent infection are usually isolated outside a city boundary. I can think of some examples and will try to write more about it later.

We'll need to look more closely at the HoME sources, and I'll have a root around locally (Derbyshire Peak District UK) as some of our villages suffered badly in the last Plague and we may be able to see how it spreads. The houses in Eyam (pronounced "eem") are marked with plaques listing the folks who died. Some of their descendants still live there. The fleas that brought the disease came in from London in a bale of woollen cloth.

RangerStryder, I have edited out your critical remark about research. Such rudeness does not befit a member of CoE. Research (in terms of CoE anyway) is about sharing information, and the essays are for the enjoyment of both writers and readers. Contributing to a discussion should be in the spirit of friendship.
PotbellyHairyfoot
Grandpa Moderator
Posts: 2929
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: February 10, 2009 01:19
The plague almost seemed to spread like the flu, especially as it seemed to mostly miss some isolated populations , like Dunland and Arthedain, but it did also spread accross some boundaries to populations that weren't in contact. If it was wind borne then the Misty Mountains could have sheltered Dunland it could have just petered out before reaching the North Kingdom. There is also the possibility it was spread like Bird Flu or by droppings contaminating the waters.
Ilandir
Council Member
Posts: 475
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: February 10, 2009 02:19
Since when a darklord like Sauron or Morgoth give a damn who die in their quest for domination?


What arvanion898 might have thought was the fact that Sauron (even though, as u said RangerStryder he wouldn't care about his servants), I'm sure he would not risk portions of his OWN army to be devastated by his own hands - thus preventing him to conquer Gondor.

But on the otherhand, I'm sure it was Sauron who directed the Plague.
'A Tolkienist's Perspective' Blog
RangerStryder
Council Member
Posts: 22
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: February 10, 2009 04:21
The purpose of the plague imo is to weaken Sauron's enemy. It destroy half of the population in the Rhovanion area, depleted Gondor's hold in Mordor's border, killed lots of Dunedain in te north..etc.

If this is not Sauron's doing then he might be so happy/glad/thankful for the luck that came to him, the death of his enemies, and the destruction of a key city, abandonement of key towers that watch his land, and he didnt lift any finger.

The deaths of Sauron's enemy changed the tide to his favor at this time.


Regarding about the Houses of Healing: I have all the books on HoME and there's no "history on the founding" of that bldg. Like I said its just a hospital facility, for which all kingdoms in M.E. have 1 for sure but not the special herbs that they carry or medical professional that Gondor employs.

The reason it was so special is that it houses famous names later in the 3rd age, but aside from that....its just a hospital bldgs. for the sick and dying.

There's a topic I saw a week ago, and this poster said that everytime he/she go to a doctor's office he/she calls that an 'Houses of Healing'. Nothing special about that.

[Edited on 10/2/2009 by RangerStryder]

[Edited on 10/2/2009 by RangerStryder]
RangerStryder
Council Member
Posts: 22
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: February 10, 2009 04:35
The plague almost seemed to spread like the flu, especially as it seemed to mostly miss some isolated populations , like Dunland and Arthedain, but it did also spread accross some boundaries to populations that weren't in contact. If it was wind borne then the Misty Mountains could have sheltered Dunland it could have just petered out before reaching the North Kingdom. There is also the possibility it was spread like Bird Flu or by droppings contaminating the waters.


It did not miss Arthedain and Dunland, both of these 2 settlements got hit by the plague but they have means to controll it and by controlling it it didnt spread. That's how you stop infection, contamination.

The Great Plague of 1636 caused suffering in Dunland, but because the Dunlendings kept themselves isolated they were not as badly affected as other peoples in Middle-earth.


As you also aware of that the heir of Isildur has healing power, maybe this helps too, but not on the Dunedain of Cardolan, they got wipe out.
PotbellyHairyfoot
Grandpa Moderator
Posts: 2929
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: February 11, 2009 01:27
I didn't mean that the Dunland didn't get hit, just that the plague was less severe there. That suggests to me that the plague wasn't all that communicable from person to person, but was likely spread by an outside vector and that the lightly affected populations were mostly missed by that vector.
ElfofCave
Council Member
Posts: 11
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: March 08, 2009 07:04
1) Could the Plague have been a weapon of Sauron?


It depends on what exactly you mean by this.

If you mean that Sauron created this disease, and the used it as a weapon it must be a definite no. To engineer a new disease would require modern equipment, and considerate knowledge and understanding about bacteria, virus, and DNA. Scientifically Middle-earth was around the stage of Medieval Europe, so they would be aware that diseases were contagious but they wouldn’t be able to explain exactly how something could be contagious.

I think rather that the disease most likely originated in Rhûn. Being his allies Sauron would definitely have been aware of the deathly disease and seen its potential. Sauron could therefore have been the prime force behind the disease spreading to Rhovanion. From there it would only be a matter of waiting before it spread further. Due to the enmity between Rhûn and Gondor it is likely to assume that not much trade was taking place – and therefore not many travelled to and fro Rhûn, so the disease was contained within Rhûn. Not in the danger of becoming ill Sauron could have studied the disease and understood that he could use human vectors to make the illness spread outside of Rhûn.

I know it says in the Silmarillion that “a plague came upon dark winds out of the East.” (The Silmarillion, ‘Of the Rings of Power and the Third Age,’ p. 356). But I consider this more a figure of speech, because in Unfinished Tales it is said that the Dunlendings were not as badly affected as other peoples in Middle-earth because they lived far from one another and they were isolated from other people (UT, ‘The Battles of the Fords of Isen,’ p. 370). If the disease was carried by evil winds, the fact that the Dunlendings were an isolated people would have made no difference.

Besides, for an illness to develop into a successful epidemic that can spread through an area the size of Middle-earth in three years, the disease must possess these two key factors:

1. It must spread via contagio, i.e. either by direct contact with the diseased or indirect contact with the diseased possessions (especially clothing and bedclothes). In order to have a proper epidemic of plague that is attached to fleas and rats, and not just a few cases, a temperature over 20 degrees centigrade for several months is necessary – which rarely occurs in a climate that is equal to that of Northern Europe. Besides studies have shown that rats don’t move very far from their nests, so diseases carried by rodents can’t spread at the speed required to cause a massive epidemic. When the bubonic plague raged in the China and India in the 19th century it moved with a speed at around 200-600 kilometres a year, despite a well developed railroad. The Great Plague of Middle-earth would have travelled at around the same speed of the Black Death in Medieval Europe, which is estimated to be around 2000 kilometres a year.

2. It has to have a long incubation time. By this I mean there must be a long period of time from a person becomes infected till the disease breaks out and becomes visible. During this incubation time the person infected is completely healthy and can infect other people. With the kind of infrastructure and settlement pattern you have in Middle-earth, which is equal to that of the Middle Ages, it is of great importance that whoever carries the disease has time to travel from one place to another, and thereby spreading the disease
cirdaneth
Books Admin & Books Forum Moderator
Posts: 2069
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: October 24, 2009 01:20
I agree with lisa_gk that Sauron could not have created the disease. He wouldn't need to. Diseases mutate quite freely with no help from us. However, I do think that (as with many other things) he harnessed the disease for his own uses. Having noted its behaviour he could quite easily arrange its deliberate spread. The increase in sea-trade would give him ample opportunity.

My guess is that Sauron benefitted indirectly at first, as the disease spread westward, but once the association was made with rat-fleas, it would have been easy to release the hosts into set communities. The Nazgul would have been immune and able to handle the rats with impunity. The pneumonic and septicaemic forms of the disease would take care of themselves, through infection and contagion from sufferers and unburied corpses.

An interesting point is that the devastating Black Death plague of the middle-ages is associated with a shortage of cats. Cats had long been associated in the Christian mind with Satan and witchcraft. One Pope ordered the extermination of cats and they had long been killed. So when the black rats arrived in European ports there were not enough predators to limit them. Perhaps there weren't many cats in ME at the time of the Great Plague.

Now there's a thought. Sauron began as Tevildo Prince of Cats ... and Queen Beruthiel and her cats had been pretty unpopular in the 9C 3A. I can't recall any other cats in LotR, can you?
Morwinyoniel
Gallery Admin & Realm Head of Estë
Posts: 1637
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: October 24, 2009 06:55
The only cat I can remember in addition to those of Queen Berúthiel, is the ostler's tipsy cat in Frodo's song in the Prancing Pony.

Apparently, Tolkien wasn't very fond of cats. For example, he once said that Siamese cats belong in the fauna of Mordor, or something like that. I just don't remember where I read it, it must be in one of the biographies or in the Letters.
ElfofCave
Council Member
Posts: 11
Send Message
Avatar
Post RE: The Great Plague
on: November 03, 2009 10:23
My guess is that Sauron benefitted indirectly at first, as the disease spread westward, but once the association was made with rat-fleas, it would have been easy to release the hosts into set communities. The Nazgul would have been immune and able to handle the rats with impunity. The pneumonic and septicaemic forms of the disease would take care of themselves, through infection and contagion from sufferers and unburied corpses.

An interesting point is that the devastating Black Death Plague of the middle-ages is associated with a shortage of cats. Cats had long been associated in the Christian mind with Satan and witchcraft. One Pope ordered the extermination of cats and they had long been killed. So when the black rats arrived in European ports there were not enough predators to limit them. Perhaps there weren't many cats in ME at the time of the Great Plague.


Have you ever considered just how many black rats it would have required to make the Black Death spread from the southern part to the northern part of Europe in just three years? The rats would have had to have stood snout to snout from Messina, Sicily, to Hammerfest in Norway. The contagion was so severe that the number of rats needed to transfer the disease and cause such a devastating pandemic would have been astronomic, because the bubonic plague carried by rats does not spread from human to human, so the only source of infection would have been the fleas from death rats. It is simply an implausible scenario for several reasons:

1) Nowhere in all of the chronicles we have from Europe around the time of the Plague is there any mention of increased numbers of rats/invasion of rats, nor the massive rat-death that heralds bubonic plague. Wouldn’t the population of Middle Age Europe have wondered about the sudden great number of death rats in the streets and inside their homes enough to mention it in just one of many description of the Plague?

cirdaneth you say that cats were associated with the Devil, but so were rats and many other species of animals - and black animals in general. So a sudden increase of black rats would undoubtedly had been seen as a bad omen, and something worth mentioning in the chronicles – especially when this increase of black rats was followed shortly by a deadly epidemic.

2) the black rat and it’s flea, though they could survive, could never thrive in the climate of Northern Europe – especially not during the period of the Little Ice Age, in which the Plague struck numerous of times. Also the Plague raged, even throughout winter, in climates where the black rat and its flea could hardly have been roaming about, especially not in the numbers it would take to cause a pandemic.

3) The Plague raged on Iceland twice in the 15th century, but there is no evidence or mentions of rats on Iceland until the 17th century.

4) modern studies shows that the black rat moves within a radius of 100 metres from it’s habitat, and one must assume that a rat ill with Plague will move even less. The documented spread of the Black Death in the 14th century would therefore minimum have required a large, connected population of tropical/subtropical rats – also in the open land, which is highly unlikely since the climate north of the Alps is far from favourable for the black rat.


Of cause one could argue that Sauron used native rats to spread the Plague in Middle-earth, but it still causes the problem of the number of rats needed to cause a major epidemic and make it spread over such a large area (much of which is open land) in just three years, especially because cold temperatures greatly moderates the rats’ activity and because a large number of rats in rat-population by nature are resistant to specific diseases. Manual transportation of sick rats to be released into chosen towns would have been extremely difficult as well.

And if the Plague had been spread by the wild, native rat-population, why were the Men of Dunland not as badly affected as other peoples simply because they kept themselves isolated? If the Plague had been spread by rats, isolation from other people wouldn’t have mattered at all.

No, as I argued earlier, the Plague must have been a disease that spread either by contact with the diseased or with items that in turn had been in contact with a diseased - especially all sorts of clothing which would have been much easier to introduce into a population, and which spreads at a much faster and more consistent rate (depending on the incubation time, of cause).
cirdaneth
Books Admin & Books Forum Moderator
Posts: 2069
Send Message
Avatar
Post
on: September 27, 2015 05:48
* bump
Hanasian
Council Member
Posts: 979
Send Message
Post
on: May 28, 2023 09:14
I believe this plague wiped out the last remaining Cardolanions, and any survivors likely integrated into Arthedain.

These old discussions are great to read!
Eighth King of Arthedain - It was in battle that I come into this Kingship, and it will be in Battle when I leave it. There is no peace for the Realm of Arnor. Read the last stand of Arthedain in the Darkest of Days.
Members Online
Print Friendly, PDF & Email