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suncrafter
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Post Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: December 14, 2006 01:53
Read about this in my local news paper:

"WalletTest.com"
http://www.wallettest.com/
Webmaster deliberately drops 100 wallets in front of hidden cameras to test honesty.

The "phone recordings" section is very funny!
http://www.wallettest.com/Lost_Wallet_Test/Phone_Recordings.html
suncrafter
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: January 21, 2007 11:55
No comments about this one?
heri_sinyë
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: January 23, 2007 11:14
well I have a comment. Quite an interesting test. but it makes young ppl look bad . Allthough I suppose that was not the intention....maybe we are bad!
cirdaneth
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: January 23, 2007 11:37
Whatever age we are, and whatever gender, we can be certain we are more honest than the average newspaper article!! I rest my case LOL
MinasTirithMS
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: January 23, 2007 01:02
Interesting data. Questions about obtaining it are:

Where were the wallets dropped?
How often was this "test" done?

Some things are not surprising, though.

Young people are still learning and testing their morals, whereas most elderly folk are well set in their ways.

I, for one, like to judge a person indivudually. not by a group he or she belongs to.
Tofu
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: January 24, 2007 01:30
An interesting experiment, but it doesn't really tell us anything. Even when making generalisations, this experiment is useless. 100 test subjects are highly unlikely to be a representative sample of the population as a whole, and it would need to be repeated several times and in a controlled environment to make it scientifically reputable. As MinasTirithMS has pointed out, there are several important questions about the data to which we don't know the answers as well. I'm sure people have had fun with it, however.
suncrafter
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: January 29, 2007 02:56
Interesting data. Questions about obtaining it are:

Where were the wallets dropped?


All over a medium-sized American city called Belleville, IL. 62264

How often was this "test" done?


100 times over a one month period of time.
suncrafter
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: July 17, 2007 10:45
An interesting experiment, but it doesn't really tell us anything. Even when making generalisations, this experiment is useless. 100 test subjects are highly unlikely to be a representative sample of the population as a whole, and it would need to be repeated several times and in a controlled environment to make it scientifically reputable. As MinasTirithMS has pointed out, there are several important questions about the data to which we don't know the answers as well. I'm sure people have had fun with it, however.


What should have been done differently?
nightfairy
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: July 17, 2007 12:40
First and foremost, if I recall my statistics courses right, no panel with less than 500 individuals can be considered representative. That is the main problem in surveys like this, and it leads to other problems - many people who do these experiments use methods like one would with a large (representative) panel, namely count and compute, and then make statements out of it like 'old people are four times more honest than young people'.
But just that is what you are not allowed to do in a serious experiment with a non-representative sample. Either you have a representative sample and treat it as such, or you don't and then use different methods. What was done here was 'mixing pears and apples' as we say here.

But anyway...you see a lot of 'tests' like this on TV and in newspapers. None of them tell us about the scientific background, and they mostly aim to sell the 'results' as a proven fact. This one - I think - is particularly bad, because it fortifies prejudices...and there are so unbelievably many people out there who are willing to believe anything the media tell them...and even more so if they feel supported in their world view.

But well, that's the way it is...

hugs
ElfmaidenofLorien
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: July 17, 2007 03:20
hmm, that was interesting. I agree with you nightfairy about all you said. Very good.

'Not even the gods above can separate the two of us, no nothing can come between you and I.'
suncrafter
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: July 21, 2007 08:04
First and foremost, if I recall my statistics courses right, no panel with less than 500 individuals can be considered representative. That is the main problem in surveys like this, and it leads to other problems - many people who do these experiments use methods like one would with a large (representative) panel, namely count and compute, and then make statements out of it like 'old people are four times more honest than young people'.
But just that is what you are not allowed to do in a serious experiment with a non-representative sample. Either you have a representative sample and treat it as such, or you don't and then use different methods. What was done here was 'mixing pears and apples' as we say here.

But anyway...you see a lot of 'tests' like this on TV and in newspapers. None of them tell us about the scientific background, and they mostly aim to sell the 'results' as a proven fact. This one - I think - is particularly bad, because it fortifies prejudices...and there are so unbelievably many people out there who are willing to believe anything the media tell them...and even more so if they feel supported in their world view.

But well, that's the way it is...

hugs





The following was taken from the http://www.wallettest.com/ website and addresses many of your points:

...Naysayers have re-hashed the same arguments so many times that I think I can safely list just about every variation of some one crying "foul!"...

Many have said that the results of the wallet test are invalid because...

1) ...the number of black people tested is not the same as the number of white people tested.

It is true that more white people were tested then black people, but that was not by design. The wallets were dropped at random in public places. The 100 people tested were, therefore, randomly selected from the population as a whole. Even numbers, however, are not necessarily needed to compare different groups to each other - that is what percentages are for.

2) ...economic considerations were not included in the test.

True. But the nature of the test is such that affluence of individuals is not something that can be measured. You can look at the films of the people picking up the wallets and can SEE their race, gender and approximate age - but you can't really SEE how affluent they are. Although a lot of people have pointed out this short coming - none have yet been able to come up with a practical method of adding affluence measurment to the test.

3) ...black people have less money then white people.

Many have suggested that the reason that fewer black people returned the wallets was because... "people with less money steal more then people with more money - black people have less money - so that is why black people were more likely to keep the wallets." That is a valid theory, but that does not mean the results of the wallet test was any less valid - it is just a good explanation for the racial discrepancy.

4) ...the person conducting the test is white, therefore black people might be slower to return a wallet to him.

Most of the time when people found wallets - they had no idea what the race of the person that had dropped it. Of the 74 people who found and returned wallets - only 4 were people who saw me drop them (3 white, 1 black).

5) ...the motivation for the test was racist.

Not true. My motivation was curiosity and a desire to create an informative website based on my findings. I was determined to post my results truthfully and accurately and I have done so to the best of my ability.

6) ...race is a factor that should never have been included in a test like this because acknologing racial differences, in any context, is wrong.

That is a debatable point and one that I do not agree with. There is a big difference between acknologing differences between people and bigotry.

7) ...the number of people tested was not large enough.

Large enough for whom? I spent a full month conducting the wallet test experiment. Each of the 100 people tested took an hour of driving time, observation time, movie editing time, etc... I also spent a lot of time and money on the wallets themselves and on the website. As far as I know no one else has conducted a simular test with this much detail and with this large of a group of people before. While I'll admit that a larger number of people would have been better - I still feel that 100 was a rather "significant" (if not "ideal") number of people to test. Many harsh critics have said I should have tested 1,000 people! But if I had, I'd be willing to bet that most of those same critics would have found something else to complain about or would have insisted that I should have done 10,000! LOL!

...the tester was not qualified to conduct the test.

You don't need to be an expert movie maker to film people stealing wallets. You don't need to be a criminologist to figure out that wallets that were never returned were probably stolen. You don't need to be an anthropologist to tell if a person is a man or woman, young or old, black or white. You don't need to be a statistician to figure out that 43% is over twice as likely as 21%... This in not rocket science or brain surgery - this is careful observation, good record keeping and high-school-level math.

9) ...the results were falsified.

The results are the product of a great deal of time and hard work. I can back up my findings with detailed notes and hours of recorded video and audio.

10) ...the results are not politically correct.

This is perhaps the most honest reason for people's dislike of the wallet test. It is difficult to accept results that are counter to what you believe are true or what you WANT to believe is true. And I know exactly how it feels. When I started the wallet test experiment - I did not expect any significant difference between the men and women tested. I was, of course, aware that more crimes were committed my men. But I had always chalked it up to "aggressiveness" and "guts" not "honesty". My reasoning was that women WANTED to rob liquor stores just as much as men - they were just too scared to do it. I now see that was wishful thinking on my part. After the test I was shocked by the gender differences; men were over twice as likely to steal wallets as men?!? To be honest - I was a little angry about it. But I could not deny it. I was faced with the ugly truth of my own test. I understand from where anger toward the "wallet test" comes from because I have felt it myself.

11) ...the results could be used by racist to justify their beliefs.

That is true and that is unfortunate. But I feel that suppressing the truth would be even more unfortunate. Covering up unpleasant test results will not help further the worthy goal of racial equality. A better strategy would be to use this research as a starting point for discussing the extent and causes of racial inequality and to explore possible solutions. Ignorance and denial will aid bigotry far better then logical examination and critical thinking.
nightfairy
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: July 22, 2007 02:11
Well, those 'arguments' show all the more how that person had no idea what he/she was doing...sorry to say that.

1) ...the number of black people tested is not the same as the number of white people tested.

It is true that more white people were tested then black people, but that was not by design. The wallets were dropped at random in public places. The 100 people tested were, therefore, randomly selected from the population as a whole. Even numbers, however, are not necessarily needed to compare different groups to each other - that is what percentages are for.
The last sentence is absolutely correct - but to be able to present said percentages as a scientific fact, a representative number of test persons would be necessary. If, out of the 100 people he tested, only 10 would have been white...would he/she still be as delusional as to count that as a computable number of test persons?
That is not a valid methiod in any way!

7) ...the number of people tested was not large enough.

Large enough for whom? I spent a full month conducting the wallet test experiment. Each of the 100 people tested took an hour of driving time, observation time, movie editing time, etc... I also spent a lot of time and money on the wallets themselves and on the website. As far as I know no one else has conducted a simular test with this much detail and with this large of a group of people before. While I'll admit that a larger number of people would have been better - I still feel that 100 was a rather "significant" (if not "ideal") number of people to test. Many harsh critics have said I should have tested 1,000 people! But if I had, I'd be willing to bet that most of those same critics would have found something else to complain about or would have insisted that I should have done 10,000! LOL!
I have a hard time not to roll my eyes here! There IS a scientific consensus about how large a panel has to be be considered representative!!! One look into the most basic method book would have told him/her so!
This answer shows how ill-prepared and badly founded the whole thing is!

...the tester was not qualified to conduct the test.

You don't need to be an expert movie maker to film people stealing wallets. You don't need to be a criminologist to figure out that wallets that were never returned were probably stolen. You don't need to be an anthropologist to tell if a person is a man or woman, young or old, black or white. You don't need to be a statistician to figure out that 43% is over twice as likely as 21%... This in not rocket science or brain surgery - this is careful observation, good record keeping and high-school-level math.
Not rocket science, but science nonetheless. In statistics, there is SO MUCH you can do wrong, and to present the results as scientifically correct to a broad public is all the more arrogant.
Sure, everybody in their right mind can figure out a percentage or observe if someone is black or white, but that is not what makes such a test valid!
You know, my old statistics teacher used to say, 'If you put one foot in the freezer and the other one in a pot of boiling water, you have - from a statistic point of view - comfortably warm feet!'

9) ...the results were falsified.

The results are the product of a great deal of time and hard work. I can back up my findings with detailed notes and hours of recorded video and audio.
Back up findings, but not results!!! There IS a difference between those!

11) ...the results could be used by racist to justify their beliefs.

That is true and that is unfortunate. But I feel that suppressing the truth would be even more unfortunate...
There is NO truth in this parody of a survey...at least, from what was done in it, this person is NOT allowed to call the results truth, from a scientific point of view!
Such arrogance...it really makes me sad!

You know, there is a reason that you have to study several years to become a surgeon or a lawyer - why do people think it's not necessary to do the same to become a social scientist?

What this person did was to 'imitate' a scientific survey, as one would do, say, at high school, to learn the basics of it. In 6th grade we did things like that...walk around in our home town and ask people to fill out self-designed questionnaires, and then try to draw results from it. That was meant to PRACTICE the method, and no one was left in the illusion that it would be considered valid in any way!

I still say doing surveys like that is dangerous, because there are too many people out there willing to believe in the rightfulness of it, because it looks scientific. IT ISN'T!

Sorry for ranting...


[Edited on 22/7/2007 by nightfairy]
BelleBayard
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: July 22, 2007 09:16
Very good points, nightfairy. In my stats classes I learned a lot about what makes a valid study and this person did not use the basics of how to conduct a statistical study at all. For one thing, a valid test is reproducible and I doubt he or she would get exactly the same results if conducted more than once. Also, the study was done in a limited population in a single location. Would this mean that only in that location the results applied? I've been working in medicine for over 30 years now and know that no matter how fascinating a new study may be it requires finding similar results in order to be considered valid and true. That said, I look at new studies with a critical eye and don't just buy it because a single study found something noteworthy. Question to ask yourselves as you read studies in the news or the Internet:

Would others discover the same thing using the same methods and in a variety of locations and populations?
suncrafter
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: September 28, 2007 06:48
How would you guys have done it?
What, specifically, should the researcher/webmaster have done differently?
Rhysenn
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: September 29, 2007 06:05
While the test could have been done differently to make it more scientifically accurate, the guy isn't trying to publish it in a peer reviewed journal or anything. It's just something he did for fun and posted on the internet. The statistics and stuff could have been better, but i don't think that makes the whole experiment invalid. I think if it was repeated under better conditions it would be likely to find similar results.

However, in order to draw strong conclusions about comparisons of honesty between groups, the most effective way is to test one set of group at a time, ie male/female or black/white, or you could do both at once, but it would be a better idea to have similar sample sizes and be sure to do statistical analysis across the four different groups all separately.

tripple_mmm
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: September 29, 2007 09:59
something I've experienced yesterday.
no one is honest. and If you are atleast honest, people treat you like s***t

[Edited on 30/9/2007 by tripple_mmm]

[Edited on 30/9/2007 by tripple_mmm]
nightfairy
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: November 09, 2007 01:25
How would you guys have done it?
What, specifically, should the researcher/webmaster have done differently?
Well, I wouldn't have done it at all, as I don't think that it is of any real value to research such a thing.

As for what should have been done differently, I would have thought I was pretty clear on that. He should have prepared himself! He should have read a book or two about sociological research before doing such a thing and having the nerve to publish it. This is not something that can be done - or explained - in the twinkling of an eye. It is science. People have whole university courses about it and work hard to get a diploma on it.
I'm really not stating all the sketchy parts of it again here, I think my post above was detailed - and long - enough.

hugs anyway
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Post RE: Who's more honest? - old/young?, men/women?
on: November 09, 2007 07:30
Oh dear! This whole discussion seems to lead only to negative thoughts about one group of people vis-a-vis another. All these studies ... what durn use are they anyway? Do they help us live our lives or be better people?

My take on this is that we all need to be sensible and careful but beyond that, life is about trust. I mean ... we have to trust we'll survive today dammit! It's like Russian Roulette. Anything could happen, but it mostly doesn't. If we thought about it too much we'd never dare do anything, and the beauty of people and the beauty of life would pass us by.
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